tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14840542.post114435225316512864..comments2008-12-12T21:52:05.656-08:00Transient Gadflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10313323030838183737noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14840542.post-1145645465285648142006-04-21T11:51:00.000-07:002006-04-21T11:51:00.000-07:00"but a fielder climbs the wall and catches the ball for an out, do you penalize the pitcher for losing the game, but then reward the fielder for un-losing it? Or do you treat it as an ordinary out? Do you penalize the hitter for making an out even though it took an extraordinary play to get him out?)"<BR/><BR/>Did ERA, WHIP or other pitching stats penalize the pitcher for losing the game, or giving up runs? Did BA, OPS, or other offense stats penalize the hiter for making that out? Or did VORP, Win Share have a btter way to evaluate this?<BR/><BR/>Come on. Currently no good statistics to evaulate that situation, and you criticize WPA by this? In the same logic, we can claim that all statistics are completely insane. <BR/><BR/>WPA is nothing about prediction. However, statistics can be useful without being predictive.Bubblenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14840542.post-1144556801600613782006-04-08T21:26:00.000-07:002006-04-08T21:26:00.000-07:00A. mtg is the only person I know who says 'you know' a great deal more when writing than when speaking.<BR/><BR/>2. Mtg: you refer to 'guy things' but I have to keep reminding you that you really don't know many 'guys' - and Paul certainly is not one of them.<BR/><BR/>iii. I love Dan's 'girl things'.Samhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03007155400081855053noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14840542.post-1144366668867375912006-04-06T16:37:00.000-07:002006-04-06T16:37:00.000-07:00"because it came with your you-know-what."<BR/><BR/>haha! <BR/><BR/>this is why i enjoy reading this blog: you manage to pique my interest and make some sense despite the fact that you're talking about MATH and SPORTS!<BR/><BR/>I guess my "guy things" are really different than some guy's "guy things." My "girl things," however, are in a class all their own.danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09552605649625223373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14840542.post-1144361718883838262006-04-06T15:15:00.000-07:002006-04-06T15:15:00.000-07:00you know it's weird because liking the narrative seems to me the girly way to like baseball. all the stats and crap seems the boy way. this is why you know who won the world series in whatever year and what position bobby schmattah played last year and for what team and how he did and who he came up with, and i do not. because it came with your you-know-what. the problem with WPA is it tries to quantify the unquantifyable, so in addition to the very reasonable examples you provide, it also doesn't take into account things like: it's a random night game in april which matters not at all since the team records are 5-4 and 3-6 respectively and there are only 16,987 people at the game because it's cold as crap and even though the roof is closed it doesn't matter because it's really more of an umbrella than a roof and they only put those heaters in the men's room for reasons positively unfathomable since, hello?, who gets colder and has to pee more, men or women VERSUS it's yankees v. red sox and it's october and they're playing for who gets to advance and and it's at yankee stadium so already there's been significant bloodletting and six fans have gone to the hospital and yes both teams are evil but one is slightly less evil AND SO the home team batting in the bottom of the ninth inning, down by a run, with two outs and a runner on second really is scant comparison indeed. this is what we mean by narrative.<BR/><BR/>it also seems to me a total guy thing to endeavor to quanitify narrative in this way. it's not that you couldn't add any of the above listed data into the WPA; it's that soon you have a sample size of one and have learned nothing besides. it seems more interesting to me to, you know, enjoy the bottom of the ninth down by one with one on which is always exciting, even in april, than to try to number the meaning out of it, especially since WPA is player specific and that's just mean and might hurt someone's feelings.<BR/><BR/>it is possible that we should, you know, have this conversation at, say, the dinner table since i am doubting very many people will be much interested although, hey, you never know.<BR/>(--mtg)(i mean obviously)Transient Gadflyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10313323030838183737noreply@blogger.com